The euFem model stems from the Future Elderly Model (FEM), developed to examine health and health care costs among the US elderly Medicare population.
It is a discrete-time dynamic micro-simulation model able to provide reliable short-, medium- and long-run forecasts (up to 2050) for the prevalence of major chronic conditions, life expectancy, disability free and quality adjusted life years for the elderly population (50+) of ten european countries (Austria, Germany, Sweden, Netherland, Spain, Italy, France, Denmark, Switzerland and Belgium) exploiting, as main data source, the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE).
euFem comprises three main sub-modules. The first predicts individual trajectories for a number of health conditions, disability and socio-demographic statuses (transition module). A second sub-module (the new-cohorts module) ensures that the data remains representative of the population aged 50+, while the last sub-module projects future health care expenditures based on the demographic and health characteristics of the population. The current version of the model also include a pension module (only for Italy and Belgium) and a formal long-term care (LTC) module implementing the LTC programmes of Austria, Belgium, France, Germany and Spain, that is the criteria under which a given individual is identified as eligible (objectively-vulnerable) for publicly funded LTC support.
We believe that euFem is a key tool to measure the impacts of demographic and health status changes in Europe and, by allowing the implementation of alternative “what if” scenarios and projections, to support policy makers with the process of policy design or reform. euFem is compliant with the ISPOR SIMULATE checklist.