The FIM model is a discrete-time dynamic micro-simulation model able to provide reliable short-, medium- and long-run forecasts (up to 2050) for the prevalence of major chronic conditions, life expectancy, health care utilizations and direct health expenditures for the italian population aged 15 and over. It exploits micro-data from the Health Search Database (HSD), a longitudinal observational database run by the Italian College of General Practitioners (SIMG) since 1998. The HSD is representative of the italian population 15+ at national and regional level and contains patient level data from Electronic Patient Records (EPRs) collected by General Practitioners (GPs). A second important data source is represented by the hospital discharge data (Schede di Dimissione Ospedaliera – SDO).
FIM comprises four main sub-modules. The first predicts individual trajectories for more than 30 diseases, risk factors and mortality (transition module). A second sub-module (the new-cohorts module) ensures that the data remains representative of the population aged 15+. The third sub-module predict hospitalization due to the main diseases while, the last sub-module projects future (direct) health care expenditures based on the demographic and health characteristics of the population.
We believe that FIM is a key tool to measure the impacts of demographic and health status changes in Italy and, by allowing the implementation of alternative “what if” scenarios and projections, to support policy makers with the process of policy design or reform. As is true for euFem, FIM is compliant with the ISPOR SIMULATE checklist.